Cleaned out a deceased estate in Coburg last weekend. Three thousand records. Mostly mainstream rock and pop from 1968 to about 1989. The kind of collection a serious music fan built carefully over 25 years and then just stopped adding to when CDs took over.

Sorting through it gave me a chance to look hard at what’s actually moving in the second-hand market right now versus what people think is moving. There’s a gap, and it’s worth talking about.

The Discogs price is not the price

Let’s start with the obvious thing. The Discogs median price is not what a record sells for in a Melbourne shop in May 2026. It hasn’t been for at least two years, but a lot of sellers (and almost all buyers under 30) still treat it as gospel.

Discogs medians right now are inflated for two reasons. First, the active sellers on the platform are heavily weighted toward European dealers who are pricing in EUR for buyers willing to pay shipping. Second, the median includes a lot of stale listings that have been sitting at aspirational prices for 18 months.

What I’m actually selling records for in 2026: about 60-70% of Discogs median for common stuff, around 80-90% for genuinely scarce items, and occasionally above median for the small handful of things where local demand outstrips international supply (specific Australian pressings, mostly).

What’s overpriced right now

Original 1970s prog rock pressings. Genuinely. The collector base for this stuff is aging out and not being replaced. A clean original Yes “Close to the Edge” UK first press used to fly out at $90. Last six months I’ve sold three at $55-65 and one is still sitting on the wall at $75.

Late-period Pink Floyd. Same story. “The Wall” originals especially. Everyone has one. The reissues are everywhere. The mystique is gone.

Most 1980s major-label new wave. Tears for Fears, Spandau Ballet, that whole pocket. Common as muck and the people who actually want it are buying clean reissues for $40 instead of taking a chance on a beat-up original for $25.

Nick Cave’s first three solo records. I love them. They’re not worth what they’re being asked for. Tons of them around.

What’s actually moving fast

Anything 1970s Australian. I sold a clean Skyhooks “Living in the 70s” original Mushroom press for $85 in about an hour two weeks ago. Daddy Cool, the Easybeats reissues from the early 80s, original AC/DC Albert Productions pressings (the ones with the Albert sleeve), Cold Chisel originals. All of it.

There’s a real generational thing happening. People in their late 40s and early 50s who grew up on this music are now buying back the records their parents threw out, and they want originals, and they’re paying for them.

Australian jazz on Crest, 44, EMI Custom, anything from the Don Burrows / John Sangster orbit. Selling the moment it hits the wall. Mentioned this in last week’s post about reissues.

Soul and funk 12-inches from 1979 to 1984. The DJ market for this hasn’t cooled. Tom Browne, BB&Q Band, Change, Skyy. Solid $40-60 each for clean copies.

Anything by The Necks. Their entire catalogue trades above retail.

What’s quietly undervalued

Late 1960s Australian beat and psych. There are still bargains around if you know what you’re looking at. The Twilights, Russell Morris early stuff, Ronnie Burns. Most punters walk past these because they don’t recognise the names.

Original 1980s Australian indie. Hard-Ons, Lime Spiders, the Stems. Selling for less than the Sub Pop comps from the same era despite being objectively better records.

European jazz from the 70s. ECM stuff is well-priced now but the smaller German and Italian labels (MPS, Black Saint, Soul Note) are still cheap because nobody under 50 knows what they are.

Classical. I know, classical never sells. But the original Decca SXL pressings are starting to move again as the audiophile market wakes up to them. Worth holding any clean ones you’ve got.

The condition problem

Here’s the thing nobody wants to talk about. Buyer expectations on condition have gotten genuinely unrealistic. People are sending back records as “noisy” that I would have sold as VG+ ten years ago without a complaint.

Part of this is that the reissue market has trained people to expect totally silent vinyl. Part of it is that the YouTube vinyl reviewer culture has made everyone hyper-aware of any pop or click. Part of it is just that people don’t really know how to listen past minor surface noise anymore.

I’m grading harder than I used to. I have to. A VG+ in 2026 needs to look basically Near Mint to avoid arguments. This affects pricing because the actually-clean copies command more of a premium than they used to, and anything with even minor wear has to be discounted further.

What I’m telling collectors to buy in 2026

Australian pressings of anything you actually like. Direct-to-disc and audiophile pressings (Sheffield Lab, original Mobile Fidelity from before 1985). Original 12-inch dance from before 1985. Free jazz on small European labels. Anything by an Australian female artist from the 70s or 80s, because those are getting rediscovered fast and supply is genuinely limited.

What I’m telling them to sell: their late-period Beatles solo, their Genesis, their Phil Collins, their Eagles “Hotel California” collection. The market for that stuff has peaked and is heading south.

That’s the state of play from where I’m standing. Come in and argue with me.